The Big Problem With Self-Driving Cars Is People

[CharlieC]

The number of people who actually own cars in the future will be very small according to most modelling. So your C&W hero will have his girlfriend leave by calling Uber - even if he still had a car it will be electric, charged from panels on his roof.

The major cost savings seem to be in the dramatic drop in the number of vehicles required - 20% of the current fleet size of autonomous vehicles replaces all the cars in cities. The autonomous vehicles will be on the road 40-50% of the time compared to about 4% for current cars.

When this will happen is a good question. The economic drivers are certainly there - the technology does seem to be getting up to critical mass - so it could be much sooner than most people think. I read a statement a couple of years ago that most people were driving their second last car now.

Charlie

[rjm]

Will these automatically stop at stop signs? Only about 7% of people do now.

[rickstef]

seeing that all of the software would be coming from California, they probably all do California Stops

[CharlieC]

Originally Posted by rickstef

seeing that all of the software would be coming from California, they probably all do California Stops

Can't see a problem so long as the software doesn't come from south of Seattle. That sort of software would probably blue screen at 120 km/hr on the freeway with the helpful message:

"Your self-driving software has encountered a problem.
Do want to upgrade to the new version now (11.5hours install time) or restart (20 minutes)?"

Charlie

[Gil]

Originally Posted by rickstef

seeing that all of the software would be coming from California, they probably all do California Stops

Rick,

Actually the idea is to replace all that software with Machine Intelligence.

Machine Learning does not equate to Machine Intelligence. One of the insights that finally dawns on a lot of people who code for a living is that eventually Machine Intelligence will replace them. That's why coding camps for children are sadly misdirected by people who mostly have little capability, other than self interest, in the future of our children. Better to have the kids learn to design paper models on a computer followed by construction.

When you get into "what is intelligence?" it becomes obvious that the "eye-hand-mind" is an "extremely" important aspect of "developing" young minds. Humans use tools as an extension of the neocortex to develop tangible realities from the intangibles of the thought processes developed there. Developing and exercising these important parts of the Human neural system through continual exercise in the young, develops and prepares them for a more productive future. You have to "Train the Brain"- watch Steph Curry at practice sometime.

Back on the Machine Intelligence track, as "each" machine learns from their experience, that collected experience is transmitted to all the other machines - the implication being that all the machines so connected share a near instantaneous learning capability. This is the most fascinating and frightening aspect of Artificial Intelligence - the connectivity of a shared intelligence.


-Gil

[Jim Nunn]

June 13, 1917 "GM says it's ready to mass produce self-driving cars"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...now/102805626/

This is from the company that could not design an ignition switch.

[CMDRTED]

Imagine the skynet factor if these self drivers decide to revolt/malfunction all at once.

[CharlieC]

If the Machine Intelligence in autonomous cars starts to do cost-benefit analysis on passengers we could be in trouble. Drunks ejected because of their propensity to vomit in the car, children ejected unless they are well behaved and women who bathe in perfume get the flick because the car stinks for ages after them.

We might have to wait a while for the Skynet option to appear.

I can see the legions of lawyers slavering at the thought of the class action suits as a result of GM replacing ability with arrogance in the production of autonomous cars.

Charlie

[DougH]

Interesting to read the US today article. It mentions that in an emergency a human can take over. This assumes the human is qualified. As self drive becomes more the norm humans won't need to take driving tests. Additionally a semi comatose human is not going to be very suitable in an emergency.

Commercial aircraft are to all intense and purposes self driving now and commercial pilots are required to attend simulator courses to keep their skills up to date. I can't see the same happening with road users.

When all vehicles are autonomous then it should be safer but in the intervening period when you have a mix it will be potentially very accident prone.

I am surprised that a motor manufacturer is promoting autonomous vehicles as there will surely be a reduction in the number of vehicles. By how many I'm not sure. Secondly as they will be called up on demand there won't be a requirement for the more expensive vehicles with added features. Nor will there be individual purchases but fleet operators, so again cheaper discounted vehicles. It just seems an unattractive market for the motor industry. Then maybe it's inevitable and if they don't adopt it others will.

Great for the general public who are moving more and more into cities. With no parking spaces and current congestion, theft and vandalism.

It is predicted that by 2050 about 64% of the developing world and 86% of the developed world will be urbanized.(from Wikipedia)

[bloomohio]

ok here is my 2 cents, bought electric car at 80 years old ,it is great for senior citizens and as a second car cost $1 a day in electricity to run, no oil changes as well!