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Old 09-23-2017, 09:10 PM
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The Big Problem With Self-Driving Cars Is People

https://spectrum.ieee.org/transporta...cars-is-people
The Big Problem With Self-Driving Cars Is People
And we’ll go out of our way to make the problem worse
Posted 27 Jul 2017 | 15:00 GMT
By Rodney Brooks
Quote:
As Roy Amara’s eponymous law famously states, “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”

That is where we are today. People are overestimating how quickly level-5 autonomy will come and overestimating how widespread level-4 autonomy will become in the near future. They see only the technical possibilities, not the resistance that will come when autonomous agents invade human spaces, be they too rude or overly deferential.

Certainly this new way of driving will eventually come. It will creep up on us, finally reducing manual driving to a recreation confined to specialized entertainment zones. The day of the robocar is inevitable, but that day will not come soon.

And flying cars? Forget about ’em.
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Old 09-23-2017, 09:37 PM
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My dad feels the same way, hates the self driving movement, believes that cars should be driven by people
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Old 09-23-2017, 11:07 PM
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Originally Posted by rickstef View Post
My dad feels the same way, hates the self driving movement, believes that cars should be driven by people
I can't wait till it happens, I can't stand driving with all these numb-skulls who think *they* can text and drive, or talk on their cells and drive, and the dullards that don't even need a gadget to distract them - that suddenly realize THIS is their exit and crosses four lanes to get to the ramp!

Safety aspect X insurance X who or whats driving= all of these are going to change the financial pressure of operating a car. I think the insurance cost of driving your own car could go through the roof. What about new fines and damages for driving your car when it could have been driving itself, it could easily come through unscathed without your had on the wheel. This technology and the insurance industries could price right out of being a Driver.

I'm a wee tired, Ill look at this tomorrow again see if I made any sence
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Old 09-24-2017, 01:36 AM
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I believe the rule is that a new technology becomes unstoppable if the new cost is 10% of the old cost. Autonomous vehicles are well under 10% in most analyses so sit back and watch the conservatives make fools of themselves.
Just the savings on health costs currently used to treat road trauma cases will run into billions of dollars. The reduction of needless deaths (1250/yr in Australia, 34,000/yr in the US) and injuries makes a compelling case.

From my personal viewpoint putting the lunatic and incompetent drivers in a cage where they have no input into the transportation process has got to be the major positive of autonomous vehicles.

I've had a couple of near misses with wankers on phones recently. I'm starting to come to the view that a Singapore style canning might be the only way to make them stop.

Charlie
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Old 09-24-2017, 02:34 AM
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Gartner Hype Cycle and Autonomous Vehicles

Below is the well known "Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies", a well known chart from the high tech world. It positions where in the five cycles an "Innovation Trigger" event as it progresses from first developments to being something useful enough that a market develops (Plateau of Productivity). Take note of where "Autonomous Vehicles" are. They have a special symbol for it - "more than 10 years".

One thing to remember is that we had no idea of how to reliably "identify a cat in a picture" with a machine until 2006. We can now see cats and other "learned" figures reliably - but have to work on "recognizing" everything else on the road and be able to reliably predict their actions. This last part, "predicting sequences", is proving to be a particularly difficult piece of science to solve and is necessary to perform autonomous driving.

This next phase is called "Machine Intelligence" and is where the machine is first capable of learning independently. Everything depends upon asking the right questions at the beginning - so far, the science to solve the problem is far behind the fiction of its future.

Also regulators have just begun to sink their teeth into autonomous vehicle's - this will only lengthen their road to introduction. Detroit, much to their credit, currently are more interested in making driving safer than they are in manufacture of fully autonomous vehicles. Expect something similar to that which occurred with Anti-Skid Braking Systems which have saved thousands of lives since their introduction.

As the grizzled old man from Jamaica said, "So, don't worry mon, be cool, it will all happen soon mon, soon"...,

-Gil

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Old 09-24-2017, 04:57 AM
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The technology would have to be 100% reliable. When dealing with flying cars the technology and mechanics and air traffic control would have to be 100% reliable and efficient. Look at the carnage on the road with people having to deal with just two dimensions. Imagine the carnage when a third dimension is introduced.
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Old 09-24-2017, 05:31 AM
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Originally Posted by SCEtoAUX View Post
The technology would have to be 100% reliable. When dealing with flying cars the technology and mechanics and air traffic control would have to be 100% reliable and efficient. Look at the carnage on the road with people having to deal with just two dimensions. Imagine the carnage when a third dimension is introduced.
I think reliability is not really the main factor.
Airplanes crashed too often when the technology started. Still they crash some times. And even with that less than %100 reliability is the most used means of transportation.

Computers aren't %100 reliable either. But we use them even knowing they will fail at one point.

The real issue is money. When some company figures how to make the most money for less, the change will come. As they will fight to death to impose it.
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Old 09-24-2017, 12:00 PM
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An interesting video from CGP Grey from three years ago that touches on self driving cars. . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
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Old 09-24-2017, 12:18 PM
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And with self driving cars this technology will be put into pickups as well. So we'll get a country music song where the guy's girlfriend, dog, and truck all leave him.
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Old 09-24-2017, 12:47 PM
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And with self driving cars this technology will be put into pickups as well. So we'll get a country music song where the guy's girlfriend, dog, and truck all leave him.
You forgot trains. Gotta have a train in there too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkKn5HrKgHQ
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