If it was me, I'd go for a bigger 'chute made from some light weight material. How much altitude do you expect to get? I can't imagine drift would be an issue (but then I don't know the rocket eating tree situation at your launch site).
The trouble with long relatively flimsy rockets is that they tend to crimp in the middle if they land on an edge. However, the bigger the 'chute, the move lateral velocity you'll get. I've also had many rockets that recovered undamaged (repeatedly) under light winds suffer fin damage on windy days. So there is a trade there too.
Edit: PS - at low altitude it might be tough to get a big 'chute to actually open. It may actually be better to use the mid-sized 'chute.
In any event, I can't wait for the flight report! Photos and videos please.
PS - I hope my repeated use of the word 'flimsy' doesn't sound derogatory. I assume for paper rockets this is a feature not a bug
