Food for thought: the future of paper modelling

[Diderick A. den Bakker]

May 2013: new developments in the world of paper modelling.

Small world, niche market.
Since I found myself in the small world of paper modelling in 2001 much has changed. Shops selling paper models were virtually extinct; the printed catalogues of PMI and Moduni were mines of information unavailable elsewhere. Computer and internet were only just begining their advance. Buying via email by means of credit card and Paypal were yet unheard of. Had eBay been thought of yet? When I started my internet shop in 2003 (www.zeistbouwplaten.nl) I was the first in the Netherlands.
Contacts with especially East European publishers were often extremely difficult. Their very basic sites were in their own languages only; mails or letters in German or English were often simply not answered. In the pre-Euro period payments and Sales tax compensation were expensive and complicated.
My small internet shop filled a definite need. Numbers of visitors grew quickly to well over 25,000 per year. My interest in unusual (architectural) models drew attention from abroad as well; its being part bilingual certainly helped.
In spite of all this, paper modelling remains a very small world, with few customers and small turnovers. Only a handful of the larger publishers can make a living out of paper models - internet shops and designers are nearly all hobbyists who do not depend on this for their income.

Brief success; fast decline.
From ca. 2000 onwards we had a real revival of paper modelling in the Netherlands. Google, the internet and the introduction of the Euro were of crucial importance. Shows and fairs played their part. Sales via internet shops went up sharply. After these few very successful years sales are now declining steadily. In recent years several large players have gone bankrupt or stopped business, both in Europe and in America. Most of the causes for this seem to be related with the fast growing importance of computer and internet in our lives:

· Nowadays virtually evey publisher has his own website and internet shop. Understandable: that way they maximize their own profits. Some of the larger ones even refuse to trade sites like mine. Not always really good for buyers - these sites are often hardly user friendly...
· Many models are now sold sale via eBay, generally at the usual shop prices.
· Numbers of visitors / buyers at fairs (at least here in Holland) are decreasing.
· Numbers of visitors to my own site are also decreasing. Not surprisingly: Google has made it easy to find and access many more sources than ten years ago.
· Total numbers of buyers are also decreasing. This hobby has much to do with nostalgia - and older buyers fade away, whereas very few younger customers take their places. The same process is going on in the world of plastic modelling and model railways.
· Perhaps most important of all: the daily increasing amount of freely downloadable models on the internet from sources all over the world. Many are of very poor and amateuristic quality, but they are free. It is sad to realise that once disappointed by such an experience, a beginner may never want to buy a 'real' model anymore.
· Most Frequently Asked Question on various forums: 'is there a free model available of ...?'
· There are large numbers of sites offering illegal downloads of even the best known publishers for just a few dollars. They even charge for models available free of charge elsewhere on the internet.
· International parcel post has become ridiculously expensive.
· The European economical crisis probably also has its influence.

These developments in the land of paper modelling are inevitable, and are similar to those in the world of film and pop music. A new film or CD has hardly left the studio before illegal copies and downloads are sold all over the world. A pop group can no longer depend on the sales of a new CD. Similarly it has become virtually impossible for small commercial publishers (like Zeist Bouwplaten / Paper Trade) to bring out new models. I expect larger publishers, too, will be affected by the same problems in the near future.

New directions: digital sales.
The world of pop music is pointing the way. You don't buy a CD in a shop anymore - you pasy for a legal download via the internet. No more printed paper models via the mail - you will get a paid download, or a CDRom through the mail. No more professional printing costs and postage - just get a good printer, suitable paper and plenty of ink cartridges. Just like printing your owen photo's.

This approach is already taking shape. ECardmodels.com in the USA is a fast growing phenomeneon, with guaranteed legal material only. A growing number of designers and publishers are already offering their products this way.

Consequences for this internet shop.
From the above you will understand that it is quickly becoming unprofitable for me to take even a small selection of new publication (and the often expensive detail sets that are becoming ever more popular) in stock. The market is simply too small for that. I will gradually limit myself to publishers who still 'sell well', to unusual publications which may still be difficult to find, and to old or second hand items. Some of my own publications (Zeist Bouwplaten, Paper Trade) are already available via ECardmodels.com; as models become sold out I may also to consider the CDRom option.

I also plan to use this place to draw your attention to newly issued and other models I come across on the internet. A complete review will be impossible - especially in Russia and the Baltic states, new publishers seem to spring up like mushrooms. I will make a personal selection of items that interest me. I will mention local prices, which do not include sometimes very high p&p. I will be happy to help people who have difficultu ordering direct from such publishers - of course at a reasonable mark up.

[Modeller]

Sorry if here.

Can anybody out from Canada prove the information that UA's "Бумажное Моделирование" is selling the CD's with there models in the above mentioned country please?

[goodduck]

I still prefer printed kits over download even printed cost a lot more.

[nebeltex]

That is a well balanced set of information for all.... I agree with 90% of everything you have stated. The "industry", such as it is, will survive as a niche product. As a designer and distributor, your assement is "spot on", as some may say. Mushrooms, (fungi) are often something that pops up, but mushrooms are almost as perihable as the "fly by night" bananas. If nobody else does, I thank you for your perspective that is more informed than most proffered.

[Don Boose]

It is an excellent and thoughtful essay, Diderick. I think you have explained the dynamics of the paper model trade very clearly and accurately.

I am glad that you will use the Forum to provide information on new paper models, and I hope that you will be able to continue in business for a long time to come, even if you must make accommodations to the changing environment.

Don

[thorst]

Diderick, just a few thoughts: from your essay one could think that most if not all free paper model kits are low quality "rubbish". While I think that this is not true (and as having released only free models by myself I hope others will agree), I think you don't get the points why free models are so attractive to a large community.

First and obvious they are easy to get and can provide a fast way to get busy in this hobby with often astonishing results. A new modeler won't be impressed from perfect detail and the best methods of design, he will be amazed by the fact that it is possible that people from all over the world share the same interests and can share their works so easily. Read some threads in various forums about the big free Sulaco model to see what I mean.

The second point is that the availability of free models in the style of pepakura also shows people which were not interested in traditional paper modeling that everyone can do this (designing a model) nowadays. Even if the first results of those fresh designers are not perfect, they mean that our hobby grows. I don't earn money with it, and didn't buy a single paper model kit since I first connected to the internet, so from the sight of a customer's sight it is not important for me if the designer earns money with it or does it for the pure fun, like I do.

Thorsten

[John Bowden]

Diderick,

Does this mean you are not going to release any more old/new models digitally? Or are you saying you are limiting printed models only your site?

I for one am hoping to see more of your Paper Trade models released in digital format. I must admit that though I have a large selection of printed models I'm still adverse to cutting up these "books".
I have no qualms cutting up my digital models as I can reprint a messed up part, and always have a copy (unless it's not backed up) to look over at any time I like.
I do trend to treat my printed copies as more "eye candy art" as opposed to something that is destroyed buy my amatuerish attempts at building a model.

john

[Diderick A. den Bakker]

Don: I have to correct myself. I used the text I prepared for my own website, so when I promised I would publish news about new publications 'in this place' I meant on my site. But I will draw attention to that on this forum every once in a while.
John: I doubt if I will do any more new models, but I will gradually try to make a number of my older models available digitally. Planning a DE locomotive to start with.

[Isaac]

Diderick

Here is my interpretation of what you noted first had.

The world is in constant change. The way we express ourselves in arts and crafts also is in constant change. What was used in the past is not always lasting. In the past, wood, clay and stones were the means of building models ( crafts, statues etc.. ) . The difference is that our technology is changing so fast that things change right before our eyes in a matter of years. Even in sound , the media has changed from records to tape to CD to digital. All in a matter of about 20 years. In video it is the same.

I suspect that modeling in plastic and paper will morph into some other format ( maybe 3D printing? ).

The reason you lament, is probably because you are on the commercial aspect of this hobby and that has financial implications that you feel first. Most of us are builders and have many kits in our collections that will probably outlive us ( I have about 15 years worth of printed kits ), so we do not feel your "pain".

As far as your observation about the new generation not having interest in modeling, I think you are correct. However, there is nothing to be done there. Kids are more interested in video games than building.

Also, modeling is not a social activity. We build alone. Talking about it or participating in meeting, contests, or writing on these forums is not building either.

So my point is that change is happening all around us and is the one true constant.

I am not sure what to suggest or how solve your specific issues.


Thanks


Isaac

[Diderick A. den Bakker]

Isaac: Yes, this is indeed evolution. The world around us changes, and we change to adapt to it. Who can deny Darwin?!
But I don't think I am lamenting, as you say: most definitely not. Perhaps I should have added a remark about my motivation for going into this hobby and starting/running the internet shop in the first place: it is purely and honestly a hobby, and the income it generates (surprisingly little, after the taxman has had his hefty share) is of no real importance for me. So no, I do not 'feel any pain'. So far, nearly all of it has been ploughed back into new publications anyway. I still regard it as a pleasant and interesting way to fill part of my copious free time.
I thought my observations might just be interesting to some of the readers on the forum - I meant it literally as 'food for thought'. And also to explain why new publications will become few and far between.