PaperModelers.com

Go Back   PaperModelers.com > Members Area > Museums, Air Shows, Events, Get Togethers

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #21  
Old 11-16-2022, 02:43 PM
Amccombs3's Avatar
Amccombs3 Amccombs3 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Fairfax, VA
Posts: 989
Total Downloaded: 103.90 MB
Quote:
Originally Posted by murphyaa View Post
Most warbirds were built quickly, by basically amateurs, and expected to only last a few months before being shot down. Longevity was not even considered in them.
Aaron, I’ll beg to differ with you on this specific point, though it is widely believed. I’ve worked on quite a few aircraft of this vintage, and shoddy workmanship is uncommon. U.S. aircraft were well built to the standards of the day (which haven’t changed much since then), and usually had good corrosion protection. That green color on the interior? That’s zinc chromate, a corrosion preventative treatment. The workers were not amateurs; they were working in a factory with training and thorough inspections. Even Japanese aircraft, built under horrible conditions (bombed factories with very limited equipment) were built as well as possible. The one exception (in my experience) is German equipment when it was being built by slave labor. Those workers would attempt to sabotage the aircraft if they could do it in such a way as to escape detection by the inspectors.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 11-16-2022, 03:03 PM
dhanners's Avatar
dhanners dhanners is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 2,599
Total Downloaded: 1.59 GB
Quote:
Originally Posted by Isaac View Post
The NTSB will concentrate on the P-63 pilot initially. They will explore human factors such as the pilot's health. Also, they will explore possible "tunnel vision" or "target fixation" since he followed the two P-51 Mustangs and not the B-17, so his mind may not have considered the bomber in front of him even if it was visible to him. I know this phenomenon as I almost got into a car accident at a T intersection when I did not notice a car crossing in front of me. I was still at a stop and did not move, but was startled that I did not notice the car in front of me.


As for mechanical issues, the B-17 will be eliminated from the causes since it flew straight and level. As for the P-63, it would be most likely impossible to find anything since it burned to a crisp.

Anyhow as we all said, the NTSB will issue a probable cause in about a year and a preliminary report in a few months.


The FAA will then make rules and requirement changes as needed.



Isaac
Am intimately familiar with NTSB procedure. Spent two years embedded with the agency as a reporter. My resulting article, “Anatomy of an Air Crash: The Final Flight of 50 Sierra Kilo,” published in The Dallas Morning News, won the Pulitzer for Explanatory Journalism, as well as top awards from the Aviation/Space Writers Association. I’ve seen first-hand how these things work, and have sat in on meetings no journalist before or since has gotten access to. Spent three days walking through the crash site in East Texas. Attended the engine tear-downs at the Garrett facility in Phoenix. Spent time at NTSB headquarters with the Board’s metallurgists, meteorologists, audio engineers and ATC experts.

Spent many a night in hotel bars with NTSB air safety investigators, some of whom had served as Investigator-in-Charge on crashes involving CAA aircraft. My comments about high-performance aircraft and youthful reflexes were things they said, not me.

It should be noted the NTSB does not regular. It can only advise. The FAA (or the other regulatory agencies the Board deals with) isn’t required to turn NTSB recommendations into law.

(As an aside, the flight that was the subject of my article originated at the same airport involved here, Dallas Executive Airport, then known as Redbird Airport. Even spent a day in their tower.)
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 11-16-2022, 04:07 PM
dhanners's Avatar
dhanners dhanners is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 2,599
Total Downloaded: 1.59 GB
I meant CAF aircraft, not CAA….
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 11-16-2022, 04:19 PM
Isaac's Avatar
Isaac Isaac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Florida
Posts: 8,810
Total Downloaded: 679.43 MB
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhanners View Post
I meant CAF aircraft, not CAA….
since you quoted my last posting:

I never questioned your credentials nor your input, so not sure why you added those on top of my quote?

I said the same thing. NTSB will investigate. The findings will be read by the FAA and involved parties and jurisdictions ( since it is on USA soil ). Then The FAA makes any regulatory changes they see fit ( or not ).

I did not say they have to adopt anyone's recommendations. However, they will take the NTSB report to heart in making any decisions and changes.


My last line was that I predict, they will make changes to the way airshows are conducted. That may or may not happen.


Isaac
__________________
My gallery [http://www.papermodelers.com/gallery...v-r-6&cat=500]
Recent buildsMeteor F1, Meteor F8, Mig-Ye8, NA Sabre, A-4E Skyhawk,Mig-15 red, Mig-17 repaint
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 11-16-2022, 05:22 PM
dhanners's Avatar
dhanners dhanners is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 2,599
Total Downloaded: 1.59 GB
Meant to say the NTSB does not regulate, instead of regular.

The background was added to stress that the high-performance aircraft/youthful reflexes issue is not just the goofy opinion of some random cardmodeler on the interwebs. It is the insight of people who have actually been NTSB IICs on crashes involving vintage warbirds.
Reply With Quote
Google Adsense
  #26  
Old 11-16-2022, 09:08 PM
RyanShort1 RyanShort1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 823
Total Downloaded: 1.74 GB
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhanners View Post
Not questioning his ability as an aviator. I was saying, generally speaking, these were aircraft designed to be flown in combat by people with youthful reflexes. Experience doesn’t always trump reflexes.
Reflexes are a MINOR deal in my experience as an instructor and pilot. Staying ahead of the airplane, good situational awareness, and familiarity with the airplane's actual capabilities are vastly more important. The test pilots flying these warbirds, too, were often more seasoned pilots. An older pilot's G-tolerances might catch up with him eventually, but if a pilot stays active and conditioned, and has adequate eyewear, it might be well into one's 60s before that even became an issue if healthy. Complacency is the bigger issue.

The issue with younger pilots is that it's easier to take younger people that aren't already essential to industry, have a more spongy brain to quickly learn a new skill set and memorize stuff, and get them to fight for something without as many questions... and keep them enthusiastic about fighting long enough to get them engaged in combat. Older guys with kids are just gonna have a harder time accepting things.
Quote:
There may well have been a mechanical issue. We won’t know for some time.
Having been there, having seen it, seen the videos, heard the planes as they started up and taxied by, I'd bet good money there wasn't a thing wrong mechanically. That P-63 was in tip-top shape and also making good speed.
__________________
Ryan Short
Aerial / Commercial Photographer at www.RedWingAerials.com
Models for sale at: www.lbirds.com and a few more that I'm looking for a place to sell them again.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 11-16-2022, 11:59 PM
dhanners's Avatar
dhanners dhanners is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 2,599
Total Downloaded: 1.59 GB
Aren’t reflexes necessary for staying ahead of your airplane and maintaining situational awareness?

And at this point in the investigation, NOTHING is ruled out. The P-63 might have been in great shape mechanically when it left the ground, but things can change quickly. That’s why IICs keep an open mind. Every possible cause is considered until it has been ruled out. As laymen uninvolved in the investigation, we don’t know enough to rule anything out yet.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 11-17-2022, 02:03 AM
RyanShort1 RyanShort1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 823
Total Downloaded: 1.74 GB
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhanners View Post
Aren’t reflexes necessary for staying ahead of your airplane and maintaining situational awareness?
If we define reflex as:

re·flex

1. an action that is performed as a response to a stimulus and without conscious thought.

I would argue that some older pilots, up to a point where they start to degrade, which varies by individual, might have better reflexes in certain circumstances, because certain activities can become so natural that they take a very small amount of brain effort. It very much depends on proficiency, but there are things that get transferred to your subconscious actions by repeated use. You don't have to think about breathing, even coughing, because your brain can kind of do those things automatically, while you may have to work harder to eat, walk, and balance at the same time. Same for an older pilot who's still sharp and fit.

It has to do with brain stuff...
The Science of Thinking - YouTube

Quote:
And at this point in the investigation, NOTHING is ruled out.
Let's not overstate this but I think we can rule out that the P-63 was sucked into the B-17 by an alien force field, that it was pushed by a giant tsunami, or... so not to overstate it, but yes, I think there are things people can legitimately say are extremely unlikely at this point. I'm of the opinion that mechanical deficiency is about 95% likely not a causal factor.
__________________
Ryan Short
Aerial / Commercial Photographer at www.RedWingAerials.com
Models for sale at: www.lbirds.com and a few more that I'm looking for a place to sell them again.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 11-17-2022, 08:01 AM
Erik Zwaan's Avatar
Erik Zwaan Erik Zwaan is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Leiden area, The Netherlands
Posts: 2,871
Total Downloaded: 37.67 MB
As a non-native English speaker, it's perhaps risky to join the conversation but as a private pilot myself, perhaps I should. Ever since I got my license almost 20 years ago, I've been reading accident reports, especially on general aviation under VFR conditions. In many cases human error turns out to be the cause of accidents or incidents, not technical reasons, despite the fact that many of the GA planes we fly in are Pipers or Cessnas of say 40 years old. Not as old as war birds, but still, airplanes of considerable age.

Pilot age can be a factor (although I know GA pilots who are well in their seventies and who still pass medical checks and are exemplary if it comes to flight preparation), experience (instructors always say that experience can be a death trap due to complacency, as younger pilots tend to do things more by the book), tunnel vision (too much focused on one specific circumstance or actions), loss of situational awareness, in fact everything that has been described in this thread as potential cause of the accident is possible, but it will be very likely that none of these individual possible causes is solely responsible.
I always have to think about the Tenerife disaster in March 1977. None of the individual links of the chain caused the accident, but all linked together they became a chain from which at some point in time no escape was possible anymore. No more maneuvering space as to say. Accident inevitable. In the end the action of one of the pilots was decisive (and for this the KLM captain got the blame) but in the total picture many more people contributed to the eventual disaster.

It's all speculation at this point and that's why the work of the NTSB or any similar organization in other countries, is so very important. To learn from it and to try as a pilot to prevent yourself from finding yourself in a similar situation at some point in time, or as organization to prevent such horrible accidents from happening again. Looking at it from this perspective, it doesn't matter who was at fault or responsible. It doesn't turn back time or the loss of lives.

My deepest respect for the people who keep on flying those legendary airplanes, organize events to make this possible and to the many more who ensure these aircraft are kept airworthy. Learning from what happened is the perhaps the best way to honor the pilots who lost their lives in this tragic accident.

Erik
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 11-17-2022, 10:57 AM
carlou55 carlou55 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 66
Total Downloaded: 737.23 MB
I have been following this thread with interest bcs I wonder what happened. I saw the videos, and read the news reports with no real answers. I am only an enthusiast, not an expert by any means. If the aircraft were in good shape, as it appears they were, then I would wager a bet the end result will be "Pilot Error". Not that the aircrew were not skillful and experienced, just that something (perhaps weather. a bird strike, health issue) happened the pilots did not have time to react to. Nevertheless, it is a very sad situation all across the board.
Reply With Quote
Google Adsense
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

Parts of this site powered by vBulletin Mods & Addons from DragonByte Technologies Ltd. (Details)
Copyright © 2007-2023, PaperModelers.com